ACCA Now September/October 2020

reading stories about the Senate races. In any event, if Republicans convert Ala- bama, and small state Sens. Susan Col- lins (R-ME), Joni Ernst (R-IA), and Steve Daines (R-MT) all win, the chances of Republicans maintaining their majority, but likely in a smaller dimension, dra- matically improves. In a nutshell, the importance of the four- seat Republican firewall is tantamount to one party winning the Senate majority. If Democrats hold Alabama or break through in either Maine, Iowa, or Montana, odds are strong they will win Senate control. If the 30, the President’s victory margin exceeded six percentage points. Mitt Romney also won a total of 16 of those 30 districts during his run against Pres- ident Obama in 2012. D emocrats are favored to hold the House, but we have seen four elections since 1994, includ- ing 2018, where the minority party has swung 40 or more seats their way. Therefore, especially in this time of national upheaval, it is likely that any- thing could happen on November 3rd. JUST GOT 1000x EASIER! PREVENTIVE MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING not, Republicans should return to lead the Senate in the next Congress. In House races, five incumbents, three Republicans and two Democrats have already lost their seats in primary campaigns, which brings the open seat total to 45. Nationally, Republicans must real- istically convert 19 Democratic seats if they are to gain even a one-seat major- ity in the next Congress. Currently, 30 Democratic members represent dis- tricts that President Trump carried, most of which he will win again. In 13 of

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SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2020